Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025 | 2 a.m.
Last week’s set of games felt like a defining moment in the NFL season. With many of the league’s top teams stepping up, they showcased their prowess, while several struggling franchises faced harsh realities as they were decisively defeated. This past Sunday felt like a “separation Sunday,” with elite teams flexing their muscles to distinguish themselves from the pretenders.
In the earlier Week 7 pick’em, I boldly declared, “give me all the bottom-feeding teams,” but the results turned out to be a mixed bag. The transparency in sports betting should always be valued — and after a couple of successful weeks, I felt confident enough to take a victory lap. However, this past week was a sobering reminder of the unpredictability of the game.
This past performance was one of the worst in the 12 years of my betting history, particularly in the Sunday morning and afternoon games, where I recorded a dismal 2-9. Thankfully, my success in the primetime games — a perfect 4-0 — offered a glimmer of hope amidst an otherwise rough week.
Looking ahead to Week 8, my card is noticeably heavy on favorites. While this could feel like an overreaction to a single week’s outcomes, it’s likely just a coincidence brought on by recent team performances.
In sports betting, swings in fortune are guaranteed, especially in a dynamic market like the NFL. The key to maintaining one’s mental stability is to embrace the volatility and work diligently to regain a winning stance.
The goal for Week 8 is outlined below, with all picks, confidence levels, and season records. The overall season record now stands at 60-45-1 following last week’s results.
Plays (21-20-1)
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears Despite some injury concerns, Baltimore boasts an impressive roster when healthy. With the team coming off a bye week and quarterback Lamar Jackson expected to return from a hamstring injury, this line feels like a rare discount on a strong team.
Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs. New York Giants Despite a recent 34-17 defeat to the Giants, Philadelphia’s roster remains superior. A significant line movement from a higher point just weeks ago is atypical for the reigning Super Bowl champions.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Cleveland Browns Facing the league’s top run defense significantly shifts the matchup for the Browns. Their quarterback situation may struggle against the Patriots’ staunch defense, making New England the favored team here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at New Orleans Saints New Orleans has plummeted down the DVOA rankings, indicating systemic issues. With Tampa Bay seemingly on the rise, they are set up for potential success in this matchup.
Buffalo Bills -7 at Carolina Panthers After losing two consecutive games, quarterback Josh Allen has been scrutinized, yet this provides an opportunity to buy low on a talented player — a situation ripe for betting advantage.
Leans (19-14-1)
New York Jets +6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals This spread shifted dramatically after the Bengals’ recent success. However, one strong game isn’t enough to justify such a change, considering the Jets’ metrics still highlight their competitive edge.
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys While Dallas has gained more traction this season, Denver has home-field advantage and is trending upwards, suggesting this game could be closer than the line indicates.
Green Bay Packers -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers Advanced statistics suggest a significant gap between these two teams. Green Bay’s consistent performance lends credence to their status as favorites in this matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Chargers have shown potential but have been hit by injuries. With players returning, they have a higher ceiling compared to the Vikings, who have struggled this season.
Washington Commanders +12.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Despite recent struggles, the Commanders have demonstrated resilience. This line feels exaggerated, considering the context of their performances and the Chiefs’ potential inconsistencies.
Guesses (20-11-1)
San Francisco 49ers +1.5 at Houston Texans While the line reflects a competitive dynamic, San Francisco’s preparation and consistency have shown them to be the better team, suggesting value in their odds.
Tennessee Titans +14 at Indianapolis Colts Although the Colts are performing well, the Titans may not be as far off as this spread suggests, particularly given the injuries on the Colts’ side.
Atlanta Falcons -7.5 vs. Miami Dolphins With inconsistent performances from the Falcons and mounting issues for the Dolphins, laying such a significant point spread feels risky without a solid statistical foundation.